SUPER EL NINO MAY BECOME STRONGEST EVER RECORDED

Why in the News ?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the ongoing El Niño could intensify through 2027 and potentially become the strongest observed since systematic monitoring began. Exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures may increase the likelihood of widespread extreme weather events.

El Niño Intensification and Global Weather Risks

●     Extreme warming: The WMO reported an almost certain likelihood that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually high sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific.

●     Record possibility: WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo indicated that the current trajectory could produce an El Niño stronger than any previously recorded during the modern monitoring period.

●     Weather disruption: A powerful El Niño can significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the probability of floods, droughts and heat-related extremes.

●     Regional impacts: Changes in atmospheric circulation can produce intense rainfall across parts of Latin America while triggering drought conditions in other regions.

●     Extreme events: Strong El Niño conditions can contribute to severe droughts, tropical cyclones, typhoons, wildfires and abnormal temperatures, creating risks for agriculture, water security and public health.

Preparedness and Importance of Early Warning Systems

●     Early action: The WMO is strengthening preparedness and early-warning measures so governments can respond before extreme weather impacts intensify.

●     Agricultural resilience: Advance forecasts can help farmers adjust cropping decisions, irrigation planning and disaster preparedness according to expected climatic conditions.

●     Water management: Governments can use seasonal climate information to improve reservoir management, drought planning and water allocation.

●     Disaster preparedness: Early warnings enable authorities to strengthen evacuation plans, emergency services and infrastructure preparedness for floods, storms and other hazards.

●     Climate adaptation: Improved climate forecasting and early-warning systems are essential tools for reducing economic losses and strengthening resilience to increasingly disruptive weather variability.

 About El Niño and ENSO Phenomenon:

●     Basic mechanism: El Niño refers to abnormal warming of sea-surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, generally associated with weakened trade winds.

●     ENSO cycle: El Niño forms one phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon involving variations in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure.

●     La Niña contrast: La Niña represents the opposite phase, characterised by unusually cool tropical Pacific waters and strengthened trade-wind conditions.

●     Global teleconnections: ENSO can influence atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific, producing teleconnections that modify rainfall and temperature patterns across distant regions.

●     Indian relevance: El Niño can influence the Indian monsoon, often increasing the risk of below-normal rainfall, although the relationship is not uniform and depends on other climatic factors.